By Ariama C. Long
Shifting trends among Black and Brown communities regarding political party loyalty, and genuine dissatisfaction among many voters with the current Democrat and Republican candidate choices, mean that one of the few independent candidates running could indeed influence the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election.
An independent candidate has never won the presidency in American history. In modern times, independents are reviled for siphoning off votes that could otherwise go to candidates in the two-party system, particularly in cases where state electoral votes come down to small margins.
However, about 49% of Black voters polled recently by the Pew Research Center said they would replace both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with different candidates going into their election rematch—if they could. This sentiment trends among the highest with younger Black voters (57%) in comparison to older voters (37%), said Pew.
Non-Hispanic White Americans are most likely to say a third party is needed, according to aggregated data provided by Gallup from 2016 to 2023. The last time this wasn’t the case was in 2012, reported Gallup. Their 2023 polling also showed 58% of Republicans endorsing a third political party and an uptick in support for a third party, 40 to 46%, among Democrats.
“Historically, African Americans strongly identified with the Democratic party, and what we’ve seen with every generation since the civil rights period is—even though Black voters continue to vote at a rate of about 90% Democratic—more registering as Independents, although they may ultimately vote for the Democratic party regardless,” said Omar Wasow, an assistant professor in political science at the University of California-Berkeley who studies race and American politics. “There’s a kind of loosening of that historically strong bond.”
Wasow posited this may have to do more with the label and expectations of being a Democrat or Republican than policy.
“We’re in this hyperpartisan period in America, where for a lot of people, the folks who care a lot about politics are seen unfavorably, so people register Independent simply because they don’t want to be associated with these labels they perceive as damaged and attached to hyperpartisans who they don’t identify with,” Wasow said.
Wasow said that even with Black and Brown voters moving away from the Democratic ticket, it would still be “exceedingly hard” to disrupt the two-party system and elect an Independent.
The two-party system is embedded in the country’s voting laws and electoral college in what’s referred to as “first past the post” or a reliance on a plurality of votes to win, he said. One of the only third-party candidates to come close to a presidential election was former Alabama Governor George Wallace in 1968. Wallace was a racist and segregationist who was endorsed by, among others, the Ku Klux Klan.
The Independent candidates running this year are philosopher and former Harvard University professor Dr. Cornel West; political scion, lawyer, and anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and socialist Claudia De la Cruz.
In terms of sheer numbers, Kennedy has raised the most money of the three, with $43,180,717 from individuals and $13,200 from political action committees (PACs). Most of his financial support comes from Nevada and California donations, reported the Federal Election Commission (FEC). West has raised $1,015,257, with most of his contributions from Texas, California, and New York. Trailing behind is De la Cruz, who has raised $178,945 and has virtually no local or national support.
Kennedy is often slammed for his “extremist views,” such as linking vaccines to autism, supporting a 15-week abortion ban, and advocating for corporate interests instead of the environment. Others don’t like that he rides the coattails of his name, since he is the son of Senator Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of the late President John F. Kennedy.
“I can understand why people want to vote against Biden,” said Wasow, “but Kennedy is coasting off the name of his father and uncle, who are often revered in the Black community for some of the good works that they did on civil rights. Carpetbagging.”
Still, polling from Quinnipiac University and the Marquette University Law School has shown that Kennedy could get the second-highest vote share of any independent or third-party candidate in the past half-century, splitting the Republican or Republican-leaning vote. He’s also reportedly polling well among conservative Latino voters.
“The threat is real and growing by the day, and we have to mobilize now before it’s too late,” said MoveOn Political Action Executive Director Rahna Epting in a statement. “Democrats have ignored third-party threats in past presidential elections to their own peril. It is up to us to come together to protect our communities against Donald Trump, RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and the MAGA Republican agenda.”
Meanwhile, West has been keeping up a robust Justice For All campaign schedule preaching the absolute opposite of Kennedy.
West is the Dietrich Bonhoeffer Professor of Philosophy and Christian Practice at Union Theological Seminary, former University Professor at Harvard University, and the first Black person to receive a Ph.D. in philosophy from Princeton University. As a well-known author on race and democracy, West has centered his campaign on reviving the nation from its current sense of “moral bankruptcy.” His lengthy list of progressive policies includes abolishing poverty and homelessness, national free pre-K childcare, ending all pay discrepancies based on race and gender identity, instituting a four-day work week, ending medical apartheid, giving reparations to Black U.S. residents, and addressing the disproportionate maternal mortality rate for Black pregnancies. West specifically takes aim at the “corporate-dominated two-party system” by running as an Independent.
Wasow said that a “Black radical” candidate like West could appeal much more to far-left white voters than Black and Brown voters.
“I think Black voters are attuned to who is supporting Black issues—voting rights, health care, improved economy—and just being Black is neither necessary nor sufficient,” said Wasow. “It’s not that there isn’t a Black radical tradition; it’s this deep pragmatism [among Blacks] that says there’s hell to pay if people who despise us get power.”
At the moment, West’s campaign is “broke” and catching flack over recent reports that Republicans are working to put him on the ballot in North Carolina and siphon votes from Biden to boost Trump’s chances. West hasn’t wholly condemned the assistance and his campaign said they were not fully aware of Republican efforts to help him, NBC News reported.
De La Cruz is from the South Bronx and is second-generation Dominican. She’s been a political and education organizer in the city for about 30 years. Her campaign exists to give people an alternative choice to vote for and highlight the pitfalls of capitalism. She believes that the Democratic party kills progressive movements and upholds the current “sham” of democracy in the country, she said.
“There’s a lot of discontent that’s been growing, but there’s always been discontentment of the people with the two-party system. It’s hardly that you vote for someone; it’s that you vote against the other guy,” De La Cruz said. “The narrative of ‘the lesser of two evils’ is not as strong in our community as it used to be.”
De La Cruz said her candidacy isn’t splitting the vote for Biden; rather, his funding of foreign wars and refusal to aid migrants hasn’t “earned” people’s votes.
Her policies include seizing assets of major corporations in the U.S., cutting the federal military budget by 90%, solving the housing crisis, and supporting efforts for Black and indigenous reparations.
Ariama C. Long is a Report for America corps member who writes about politics for the Amsterdam News. Your donation to match our RFA grant helps keep her writing stories like this one; please consider making a tax-deductible gift of any amount today by visiting https://bit.ly/amnews1.
This story was produced as part of the 2024 Elections Reporting Mentorship, organized by the Center for Community Media and funded by the NYC Mayor’s Office of Media and Entertainment.
This post was originally published on New York Amsterdam News.