By Mya Trujillo
Climate change caused by human activity has increased the Earth’s temperature, especially in the Arctic, which has experienced its 10 warmest years in the last decade.
With a warmer planet comes milder winters, cold air outbreaks and more intense storms in the U.S., leaving scientists concerned about an increasingly unstable climate system as research resources dwindle.
“The Trump administration has been sabotaging our weather and climate prediction infrastructure and our research infrastructure, so we can’t do the research that is needed to understand how these cold air outbreaks and extreme weather events in the wintertime are changing due to climate change,” Marc Alessi, an atmospheric scientist and fellow with the Union of Concerned Scientists, told The Informer.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Global Climate Report, November 2025 was the third-warmest since the agency began recording global temperatures in 1850, reaching a global surface temperature 2.12°F above the 20-year baseline.
The report also noted that the Arctic, which is warming faster than any other area on the planet, experienced a top-five warm November.
Further, the region’s sea ice coverage was recorded to be 530,000 square miles below average, the second-smallest November extent in the 47-year record. As layers of ice dwindle, open waters absorb heat that would usually be reflected by the ice. This loss of cover affects the rest of the globe, as its presence usually regulates the Earth’s climate and impacts weather patterns.
“Our polar oceans are undergoing massive disruptions that will change these environments at a very basic level, from corrosive waters to slowdown of ocean currents that will last hundreds or thousands of years,” said Dr. Helen Findlay of the UK’s Plymouth Marine Laboratories, following the release of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s (ICCI) 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report.
The Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Stronger Storms Pipeline
The ICCI’s report raises concerns regarding increased cryosphere melt and ocean acidification caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.
Accelerated loss and damage to Arctic oceans could prompt sea-level rise and cause difficulty in trying to adapt to the changes, paving the way for unpredictable inclement weather, as seen with Hurricane Melissa’s alarming intensity in October 2025.
According to the NOAA, oceans have reached above-average heat contents since the mid-1990s, with 90% of the world’s excess heat being trapped in the Earth’s system due to global warming from human activities being absorbed by the ocean.
“These changes have huge consequences for the rest of the planet,” Findlay said. “Halting CO2 emissions is the only way to stop this.”
During the winter months, the North Pole’s polar vortex expands and sends cold weather southwards. It interacts with the polar jet stream, which separates cold arctic air from warmer air and is intended to keep cold air contained in the Arctic region. When the polar vortex becomes disrupted or weakened, it can distort the jet stream, allowing arctic air to escape and cause cold air outbreaks in regions like the eastern United States.
When mixed with the warming temperatures in other areas and in oceans, the cold fronts could wreak havoc.
“Warm waters basically provide fuel for winter storms,” Alessi said. “If we get a nor’easter forming …over these warmer-than-usual waters, then that can actually strengthen the nor’easter further.”
With funding cuts to climate research and storm preparedness initiatives, scientists like Alessi are concerned about their ability to analyze and understand how the new atmosphere, ocean systems and climate system brought forth by increased climate change operate and affect global weather patterns and the environment.
“We’re potentially flying blind into a future with more intense climate change where we can’t do the necessary research to understand how the atmosphere is changing, thereby making us less prepared for extreme weather events,” the atmospheric scientist continued, “and that includes these winter storms or cold air outbreaks in the winter season.”
Warmer Winters: Ideal in Theory, Not in Reality
Climate Central, a nonprofit consisting of independent scientists and communicators advocating for a more efficient approach in combating and reversing the effects of climate change, analyzed that between 1970 and 2025, winters have warmed by 3.9°F on average in 98% of 244 U.S. cities. Today, during the winter months, most cities experience at least seven more days that reach above-average temperatures than in the 1970s.
“That means our coldest days aren’t as cold, and those deep winter freezes don’t last as long,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. “And while that may sound great, warmer winters affect snowfall, water supplies and even ripple into spring allergies, summer fruits and… recreation that we love.”
During winter, the central and east-central equatorial Pacific can experience periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures, also known as La Niña. This anomaly in sea temperatures, which can occur every three to five years or for successive years, is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
La Niña winters can mean snowier weather for northern New England, parts of New York and areas near lakes, while regions like the mid-Atlantic can experience less snow. For the 2025-2026 winter season, weaker La Niña conditions are expected, as recently predicted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A weaker La Niña could mean less snow in certain regions of the U.S. With less snow comes more precipitation as rain and a declining snowpack– something that worries Alessi about the country’s northeastern region. Both the eastern and western parts of the U.S. rely on long-lasting snowpack, as it adds to drinking water supplies when it melts in the spring and summer.
“If more precipitation falls as rain, as opposed to snow, then that rain will immediately flow into the ocean,” Alessi told The Informer. “If we have less snowpack, we’ll have lower stream flow [and] less water availability in the spring and summer season, and that could lead to water shortages [and] droughts to form.”
That increased rainfall due to decreased snowpack during winter and spring, when the soil is at its wettest, could also lead to rain-on-snow melting events and cause more rapid snow melt. This could create a higher chance of flood risk– weather events that are harder to prepare for amid the Trump administration’s cuts to preventative initiatives.
Even though warmer winters could seem desirable to many, these conditions are a direct result of the climate change that affects a large portion of the world and its weather. As the phenomenon’s effects intensify and change the landscape, climate advocates note that scientists, decision-makers and everyday individuals must be equipped with the tools necessary to remain proactive in the face of inclement and unpredictable weather.
“Climate change has changed the atmosphere and ocean system, our climate completely and, in a way, every event that occurs is influenced by climate change,” Alessi told The Informer. “The fingerprints of climate change are everywhere.”
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